Three DUP MPs at risk in snap general election, polls suggest

The DUP’s 10 MPs: Gregory Campbell, Nigel Dodds, Jeffrey Donaldson, Paul Girvan, Emma Little Pengelly, Ian Paisley JR, Gavin Robinson, Jim Shannon, David Simpson and Sammy Wilson with party leader Arlene Foster

Statistical analysis of polling trends has suggested up to three DUP MPs could lose their seats in a snap general election.

Speculation has been mounting Prime Minister Boris Johnson could attempt to call an election for November in a bid to bolster his support in the House of Commons.

The Conservative party – which has a confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP for the support of its 10 MPs – has a working majority of just one in the Commons.

In a report in the Sunday Times, Belfast-based pollsters LucidTalk suggest DUP MP Emma Little Pengelly will lose her seat based on analysis from polling firm YouGov.

It suggests Alliance could dramatically take the seat with 35% of the vote with Ms Pengelly taking 21% – a drop of nine points – with the SDLP, which previously held the seat coming in with 11%.

Elsewhere LucidTalk’s analysis suggests Gavin Robinson’s East Belfast seat and Paul Girvan’s South Antrim seat could be vulnerable to an Alliance challenge.

The study suggests in both constituencies the DUP are marginally ahead of Alliance.

In East Belfast, which Naomi Long famously wrestled from the clutches of Peter Robinson, the party is sitting on 41% support, two points behing the DUP.

While in South Antrim, the party could see its vote share soar to 32%, one behind the DUP, the polling suggests. In the last general election the party managed a 7.4% share of the vote.

Alliance has seen a surge in its vote at the ballot box during the Stormont stasis.

In May’s European Elections Naomi Long took the second seat after weeks of specualtion she could pinch the third seat from the UUP.

And just weeks earlier in the local government elections, the party broke new ground in constituencies it had never had representation before and saw its vote share increase almost 5% to 11.5%.

With many thanks to the: Belfast Telegraph for the original story