The Meaning Of The Ashcroft Poll

The latest Ashcroft polling (‘Yes to Independence takes the lead’) has sent one section of social media into howling meltdown, and others into a state of euphoria.

 

BREAKING: A new poll by Lord Ashcroft has found that a majority of Scots now favour Scottish independence. That also includes 20% of No voters from 2014 and 40% of Labour voters.

 

People are rightly saying three things: first the obvious point that this could be a rogue and what you’d really want is two or three consecutive polls to confirm (or deny) this direction; secondly that the prospective for independence needs to be not just based on ‘isn’t Boris Johnson terrible’; thirdly that other issues remain preventing a mass pro-indy majority.

All of which are true, none of which are particularly interesting.

What does come out of this is not just a possibly significant shift in opinion, but that it completely undermines everything for the Conservatives, and Unionists.

While the commentariat have been lining up to write-up Ruth Davidson’s obituary, the news is worse than to have a fatally wounded leader.

It’s true its all very bad for Ruth Davidson

Andrew Tickell writes:

“She arrived in the right place, at the right time, with the right set of communication skills to exploit the moment. She may have no evident policy commitments, almost no core convictions, no pl;ans about how to govern Scotland and no shame about reversing those few policies she has publicly committed herself to, but these are vices few political hacks will hold against you.”

But what the poll does – or will do if it’s repeated – is really destroy the core argument that the Unionist tribe have been rallying around.

That is: “we said no and we meant it” – and revolves around an assumption of moral and democratic certainty. It assumes that ‘they’ represent the solid and quiet majority of people in Scotland, and that the dreaded Nats are the wayward and wild minority. It’s not so much a coherent political argument or stance as just a feeling of superiority, often reinforced by age, class or education. It’s often articulated by people who don’t (and haven’t) had their own views challenged much in real life and who bring to the table a combination of a bristling visceral hatred of the Yes movement, and a sense of cultural self-hatred born from an entire lifetimes experience.

All that self-importance and incomprehension deflates like a flan under examination but also under pesky things like facts and polling data.

The Hubris of Unionism depends on the cultivation of two myths: first that Britain is an infallible construct that is eternally magnificent and unique; and it’s mirror, that Scotland is uniquely incapable and incompetent. The first myth is utterly destroyed, the second is the task facing Scotland’s democracy movement.

The people who voted for dependence in 2014 are seeing their idea of Britain fading into humiliation while the idea of a vernal Scotland rising is more alluring than before.

If Conservatives and Unionists have to base their politics on actual ideas and arguments rather than a sense of self-importance, they lose.

By Mike Small
More By This Author
Published on 5th August 2019
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Millsy 5th August 2019 at 12:12 pm
While this poll is welcomed , it is simply a confirmation ( to me at least ) of what I believe has been the position for some time – that a majority in this country wish to see another referendum on our increasingly unequal ‘partnership’ in the UK .
The unionist politicians supported by the overwhelming unionist media have been engaging in a project of simply ignoring all the signs of increasing dissatisfaction with the Union , and they have indulged in their equivalent of a child putting their fingers in their ears and screaming ”Lah, Lah , Lah , Lah ! ” to avoid hearing unpleasant news in the hope that it will somehow magically disappear .
Welcome to reality !

Reply
James Sinclair 5th August 2019 at 2:25 pm
KIRSTY,

On behalf of those people who support independence for Scotland I would like to invite you to take part in the March for Independence in Aberdeen on Saturday 17th August starting at Albyn Place 1.30pm. I do hope that a high profile SNP politician would be only too glad to take part in this event, There appears to be a feeling that the SNP have been too long sitting on the political fence and that their support for those who wish to raise the profile of Independence has been severely lacking. So I would urge you and your fellow SNP politicians to come out from behind your net curtains and join us in the March in a hopefully sunny Saturday in Aberdeen.

Reply
Gordon Bickerton 5th August 2019 at 9:18 pm
I have been on many marches for independence, some on foot and some with the Yes Bikers.
Senior SNP MP’s and MSP’s have been with us, on the majority that I’ve been on.

Reply
Dougie Blackwood 5th August 2019 at 2:26 pm
We must not forget the Scottish Cringe. All too many believe what anybody with a little authority has to say.

Last time the Chancellor said ye canny use the pound and many took that as a burst baw. Next time something else, equally spurious will be thrown up.

Independence is not a hard and fast plan with all the steps laid out. It is the power to make our own decisions and decide on what WE want rather than being told what we will be given by a grudging Westminster.

Reply
Meg Macleod 5th August 2019 at 3:11 pm
holdfast Scotland..stormy waters ahead……tie yourselves to the mast……keep your ears closed to the beautiful siren songs of Boris`s carrots….m…..oh Boris..you said it all before…or have you forgotten. .?……..snp…..get your act together and lets hear some real purpose to your future plans….something different, brave and creative..Scotland deserves something better than a carbon copy of Westminster.

Reply
Andy Anderson 5th August 2019 at 3:45 pm
Yes, I must admit I was expecting this. I also expect that the forces which caused this change are still at work and that the positive position on independence will grow.
This in turn will force the Unionist to finally have to address the real issues rather than rely on what they called ‘project fear’ and this fills me with hope because all the significant fact support Scotland being a normal country and running its own affairs are positive.

Reply
squigglypen 5th August 2019 at 3:54 pm
Independence is coming ..thanks to the jolly japes of Westmonster..but support the SNP….they are not perfect( who is?)..Nicola still holding her nerve….but we can do without carping and criticising of them – with plenty others waiting to join in and bring them down..Back them up…even if some things they do get up your nose ..they are our best hope and are in the front line of battle..taking a lot of flak as they stand there..so don’t join the a*******s who attack them. They are Scots fighting for Scots…no-one else is qualified to do it better for us. We are in the final battle….schiltrons in place….Nicola at the head with her wee axe….keep your nerve.

Reply
Robbie 5th August 2019 at 6:14 pm
It means , Its Comin Ome,Indy,s Comin Ome. Scotland’s Coming Home,right.

Reply
Blair Breton 5th August 2019 at 7:01 pm
Westminster has ignored and neglected Scotland for some years, and the breach of faith on Brexit has hammered home that point

Reply
David Allan 5th August 2019 at 8:11 pm
it’s no surprise that even after the warning shot fired in 2014 . Westminster thinking failed to react differently -result business as usual on Scotland.

Their arrogance and continued contempt has altered many perceptions on “UKOK”.

Reply
Alinscot 5th August 2019 at 10:24 pm
There is too much excitement on this poll, personally I am looking for 60% to feel confident.

I am mystified:
a) why are the SNP constantly agitating against the UK having Brexit, it’s what they (England) voted for. If the SNP were actually successful in stopping Brexit, independence would be much more difficult if not impossible.
b) Why are the SNP not concentrating on an independence campaign which should have commenced at least two or more years ago and it would also take pressure off having an indyref2 date.
c) Are there ever going to be things like billboards with punchy messages and taking opportunities when live on air to get bullet points out?

Perhaps there is a great master plan.

Reply
Ian S 6th August 2019 at 10:33 am
In terms of a) the SNP are arguing for the best outcome in the current situation for Scotland and the UK, and are not playing the usual political game where they are desperate for a bad thing to happen because it makes them look better. In other words they are showing integrity. In my opinion this is a good thing.

Reply
Bill 6th August 2019 at 6:56 am
Now we really need to see the SNP tackling the issues that caused us to fail last time. Developing a new currency, establishing a central bank, developing other institutions that will be required in an independent Scotland. They need to push hard in canvassing in all Scottish Parliament seats on all of these issues, in order to win a substantial majority, and then resile from the treaty of union – with no need for a referendum. Be under no illusion, there will be a ‘hard brexit’ during the election campaign called by Boris. We will crash out of the EU. We need to be independent of that lot in the south

With many thanks to: Bella Caledonia for the original story 

Could people please share and attend if possible

JUNE 19th will mark 6 years Julian Assange has been detained insensory deprivation in the Ecuadorian Embassy London by British police who wait to arrest him and hand him to the United States.

6 p.m., Solidarity demonstration outside British Embassy, Dublin
Speakers:
Mairead Maguire, Nobel Peace Laureate, Peace People.
Clare Daly, TD
Mick Wallace TD
Venue: British Embassy, Dublin 29 Merrion Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4

With many thanks to: Fra Hughes for the origional posting.

Remember the innocents murdered by him. Don’t think of him

For those of you paying respects to Charles Manson today, here are the names and faces of some people killed by him and his family.

Remember them, not the person who killed them.

With many thanks to: James Ryder.

FACING CHARGES FOR SEARCHING FOR HER MISSING HUSBAND

 

Hanan Badr el – Din

FACING CHARGES FOR SEARCHING FOR HER MISSING HUSBAND

When Hanan Badr el-Din’s husband disappeared in July 2013, her life changed for good. Her relentless search for answers has landed her in prison and she is now facing at least five years in prison.

Hanan last saw her husband on television, wounded and at a hospital after attending a protest in July 2013. But when she went there, she couldn’t find him. She searched police stations, prisons, hospitals and morgues. No one could tell her what had happened to him.

Her husband is one of hundreds of people missing at the hands of Egypt’s security forces.

Every day, an estimated three to four people are taken and never to be seen again. Most are activists, students and protestors, yet the Egyptian Government claims that disappearances don’t exist in the country.

In 2014 Hanan co-founded a group tasked with finding the truth behind Egypt’s disappeared. Her latest attempt to get information about her husband has lead to her arrest and being charged with belonging to a banned group. Hanan’s courage and determination could see her locked up for at least five years. Will you stand up for the brave?

Join our call on the Egyptian President to drop all charges and free Hanan immediately and unconditionally.

Please sign the petition, follow the link below: https://www.amnesty.org.au/act-now/hanan-badr-el-din-egypt/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20171025_W4R851_Egypt&utm_content=20171025_W4R851_Egypt+Version+A+CID_4964fc79a2c337a607a5383c13fbe872&utm_source=CM&utm_term=SPEAK%20UP

PETITION TEXT

OUR PETITION
Your Excellency
President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi

I am very concerned for Hanan Badr el-Din, who has been arrested on false charges while searching for her missing husband and campaigning for the disappeared in Egypt.

I call on you to release Hanan Badr el-Din immediately and unconditionally, dropping all charges against her. Please also inform Hanan of the fate and whereabouts of her husband, Khaled Ezz el-Din.

Egypt must stop the use of enforced disappearances, and ensure perpetrators are held accountable.

Yours sincerely,

Please sign the petition, follow the link below: https://www.amnesty.org.au/act-now/hanan-badr-el-din-egypt/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20171025_W4R851_Egypt&utm_content=20171025_W4R851_Egypt+Version+A+CID_4964fc79a2c337a607a5383c13fbe872&utm_source=CM&utm_term=SPEAK%20UP

With many thanks to: Amnesty International Australia. 

Stop Political Extradition To British : The Pensive Quill

http://thepensivequill.am/2017/10/stop-political-extradition-to-british.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed:+bigmackers+(The+Pensive+Quill+-+Anthony+McIntyre%27s+blog)&m=0#

Death of the son of the late revolutionary leader Sean Hogan #RIP

Dated Nov16 2016 Tipperary Star

Death of the son of the late revolutionary leader Tipperary’s Sean Hogan
Sean Hogan whose son Sean (jnr) has just passed away.

The death has been announced of the son of Tipperary revolutionary leader Sean Hogan after a short illness in Dublin. Sean (jnr) died peacefully fifty seven years after his father Sean who was one of the leaders of the 3rd Tipperary Brigade of the Irish Republican Army during the War of Independence.

The death has been announced of Sean Hogan, son of Tipperary revolutionary leader Sean Hogan, after a short illness.
Sean (jnr) had visited the Premier County last year to attend for the first time,  Soloheadbeg,  where on 21 January 1919, Dan Breen, Seán Treacy, Séamus Robinson, Hogan, Tadhg Crowe, Patrick McCormack, Patrick O’Dwyer and Michael Ryan helped to ignite the conflict that was to become the Irish War of Independence. They shot dead two members of the Royal Irish Constabulary (RIC) – Constables McDonell and O’Connell – during the Soloheadbeg Ambush in County Tipperary. The RIC men were transporting gelignite explosives, when they were called on to surrender they took up firing positions but were shot dead by the ambush party. As a result of the action, South Tipperary was placed under martial law and declared a Special Military Area under the Defence of the Realm Act. Treacy, Breen and Hogan took the cart and hid the explosives and immediately ‘went on the run’. They met up again with Robinson a few weeks later and the “big four” as they were locally called, remained in hiding over the coming months, moving from house to house of sympathisers or sleeping-in-the-rough in the countryside.
A large police and military manhunt was launched to find them. A thousand-pound reward was offered for information leading to their capture, this was later raised to ten thousand pounds. The Police Gazette, ‘The Hue and Cry’ regularly published accurate descriptions of the wanted men. The houses of known or suspected nationalists were ransacked by the RIC. Relatives and friends of the men on the run were a particular target. he was later arrested at Anfield near The Ragg but was freed in the famous Knocklong ambush.
Sean Hogan (jnr) who died last night also attended Anfield where his father was captured and he also attended a lecture at the  Borrisoleigh Historical Society about his fathers role in the conflict. His wife Lily had died back in 1984 and Sean was residing in a nursing home in Dublin since 2009. Tipperary remained close to his heart though and he was conveyed to The Premier County by local man Gerry Hayes, formerly Leugh, Thurles who visited him each week in Dublin. His passing breaks the Tipperary link with the great Sean Hogan who, after the war returned to farming in Tipperary. Like many other ex-soldiers who supported the Republican side during the Civil War, Hogan was later interned by the Free State, for periods between 1923 and 1932, until the political landscape changed with the election of Fianna Fáil. His family later stated that after his release he looked much older but his spirit was still defiant.
Hogan tried farming in County Dublin, but this venture did not succeed. He also worked for the Board of Works and as an usher in the Dáil. He married Christina Butler and had three sons; Hugh, Thomas and Sean – Thomas is still alive in Australia. In later years he was in poor circumstances, living on his own in North Great George’s Street, Dublin. Hogan stayed with Seamus Robinson and his family in their house on Highfield Road for 6 months. He died aged sixty-seven on Christmas Eve 1968. He was buried with full military honours in the family grave at St. Michael’s Cemetery Tipperary town
Sean (jnr) will be laid to rest in St Fintans cemetery in Sutton, Dublin in the coming days.

With many thanks to: Easter Rising War of Independence and Irish Civil war History.